Insights

Ocean Freight Market Update — September 2026

By the Conveyco TeamSeptember 8, 20268 min read

The short version

Last month we said not to expect emergency fuel surcharges to come off, and that the direction of travel was up. That is where it went. The June and early-July reductions are gone across most of the market, and carriers that reinstated charges over the summer have held them or moved them higher.

What is new is that fuel is no longer the only thing moving. Three non-fuel cost items landed in the first days of September — tighter transit capacity at the Panama Canal, new inland surcharges in northern Europe driven by a record-low Rhine, and Canadian counter-tariffs on U.S.-origin goods. None of them is a fuel charge. All three hit landed cost.

Fuel first

Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has kept marine fuel elevated since late February and complicated where carriers buy it. Refining capacity remains tight, which keeps diesel and bunker high even in weeks when crude eases. Carriers have layered emergency surcharges on top of their standard bunker mechanisms to recover the gap.

On the inland side, U.S. EIA weekly on-highway diesel rose sharply through the second half of August and jumped again in the first week of September, reaching levels not seen in the series before this summer. Marine bunker moved the same way. If your door-to-door number moved this month and the ocean rate did not, this is why.

Panama: the cut that didn't land, and the one that did

This is worth reading carefully, because the headline and the outcome diverged.

In early August the Panama Canal Authority announced two step-downs in the maximum authorized draft at the Neopanamax locks, the second of them due on September 3. That deeper restriction never took effect. It was deferred once in late August, and on September 4 the authority postponed it again with no new date. The shallower of the two step-downs did take effect, on September 2, and remains the operative limit until further notice. The stated basis throughout was Gatun Lake levels and rainfall well below historical averages.

What did change is capacity. Alongside the deferral, the authority reduced the number of daily booking slots through late August and the start of September. And carriers introduced Panama Canal transit surcharges across August and mid-September, which have not been withdrawn following the draft postponement.

The practical read: the feared draft cut did not arrive, transit slots got scarcer, and the surcharges are being billed anyway. This matters to all-water services into the U.S. East Coast and Gulf, and to South American routings. Restrictions of this kind do not show up as a delay — they show up as a surcharge and as tighter space.

The Rhine is at a record low, and it has not recovered

August set the lowest Rhine levels since records began in the 1880s. Early September brought no meaningful recovery; the gauge at Kaub, the standard reference point for barge loading, remained far below its normal low-water mark and continued to fall through the month.

The freight consequence is reduced barge capacity, which pushes volume onto truck and rail and congests the inland network behind Antwerp and Rotterdam. Carriers responded with congestion surcharges on inland moves routed through those ports, phased by cargo type — the first tranche from September 1, with FMC-regulated cargo following on September 20.

One nuance worth carrying: trade reporting attributes the barge delays to a combination of low water and port congestion, not to the river alone. A briefing that blames the Rhine by itself overstates the case.

Crossing the northern border

Canada's counter-tariffs on U.S.-origin goods came into force at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, under the United States Surtax Order (2026). CBSA published its administration and accounting instructions the day before, in Customs Notice 26-23. The measure applies a surtax across three rate bands depending on which schedule an item falls in, and the published list is weighted toward steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics, with furniture, apparel, wood and paper products, fish and seafood, and semi-trailers also caught.

Two mechanics are worth knowing, because they decide whether a given shipment pays.

Goods already in transit are relieved — if you can prove it. The surtax does not apply to U.S. goods in transit to Canada on the day it came into force, where "in transit" means bound for but not yet arrived in Canada and under a carrier's control. That relief is documentary: CBSA expects the importer to hold shipping documents, report-of-entry documents and cargo control documents, and to produce them on request. No proof, no relief.

What catches a shipment is origin, not departure point. Liability turns on whether the goods are U.S.-origin under Canada's country-of-origin marking rules — which are not the same test as CUSMA preferential origin — and on whether the exact tariff item appears on the list. Goods bought in the United States but manufactured elsewhere are not caught, provided origin can be evidenced. Goods bought outside the United States but marked as U.S.-made are. Classification and origin both have to be checked, per item.

There is a remission process at Finance Canada for inputs that cannot reasonably be sourced domestically or from non-U.S. suppliers, decided case by case. Existing relief granted under the 2025 surtax remission order was carried across to the new measures.

None of this is advice on your classification, and we don't give it. Customs clearance is coordinated through our licensed broker partner, and the right time for that conversation is before the booking rather than at the border.

There is a freight-side consequence too. Industry groups have warned that the measures risk unbalancing cross-border flows — with southbound volumes falling, equipment ends up on the wrong side of the border, and repositioning cost rises for everyone. If your export bookings route through Canadian gateways, equipment availability is the thing to watch, not the tariff line.

Ocean rates: a split market, not a trend

The global composite container rate index was essentially flat through the first week of September. That number conceals what is actually happening underneath it: transpacific rates rose while Asia–Europe fell, and they have been diverging for weeks.

Part of the Asia–Europe softening is a routing change. Carriers have begun returning selected Asia–Europe services to the Suez Canal and Red Sea corridor after an extended period routing around the Cape of Good Hope. This is a partial, service-by-service return rather than a market-wide one, and carriers state it remains conditional on regional conditions, so it can change at short notice.

What this means for your freight

Plan the quarter on fuel staying where it is or higher. The early-summer easing was real and it is over. Budget on current levels, not on June.
Check the inland leg as hard as the ocean leg. Diesel at these levels keeps drayage and rail fuel charges elevated. On a long inland run to the gateway, that number can move more than the ocean rate.
If you are booking all-water to the East Coast or Gulf, ask about canal costs specifically. The surcharges are in force regardless of what happened to the draft limit.
If you move inland cargo through Antwerp or Rotterdam, expect a congestion line item and expect it to persist while the river stays low.
Confirm your Asia–Europe routing per sailing, not per service. Some services have gone back through Suez and some have not. Transit assumptions built on Cape routing may now be wrong in either direction.
If you ship U.S.-origin goods to Canadian consignees, get classification and origin confirmed before the booking. The in-transit relief only helps cargo that was already moving on September 8, and only where the documents prove it.

What would bring surcharges down

The same three signals as last month, none of which have turned:

Sustained normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic.
Marine bunker and diesel holding lower for several weeks, not days.
Recovery in Middle East refinery output.

Treat emergency fuel surcharges as a variable cost that is staying this quarter.

Tracked carrier by carrier, booking by booking

We don't manage this market from headlines. Surcharge changes are tracked carrier by carrier on every booking we handle — which charges moved, which moved into a standard fuel mechanism, and what each carrier's current levels actually are on your lane. Quotes go out all-in, with every line itemized, so the number you book against ocean freight is the number you pay.

Based on published carrier customer advisories, Panama Canal Authority advisories to shipping, U.S. EIA weekly on-highway diesel data, WSV PEGELONLINE gauge readings for the Rhine at Kaub, Drewry World Container Index data, and Government of Canada and CBSA publications, covering August 20 through September 8, 2026. Carrier surcharges change with limited notice.

For the current month's picture, see the live Ocean Freight Market Conditions briefing, or request a quote and we'll walk you through every charge on your lane.