SHIPPER BRIEFING
Ocean Freight Market Conditions
Emergency fuel surcharges eased early in the summer and have since turned back up. Here's what that means for your freight, and what would have to change for them to come off.
Last updated: August 20, 2026
Updated monthly, and sooner after major market events.
Previous briefing: July 2026 briefing
WHERE THINGS STAND
The short version
Don’t expect emergency fuel surcharges to come off ocean freight in the near term. There was real easing in June and early July, when several carriers reduced or removed their EFS; renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed fuel back up in late July and the trend has reversed. At least one major carrier has already announced an increase effective mid-September rather than a reduction.
These remain temporary, adjustable charges — carriers have shown they will cut them when fuel allows. The timing depends on fuel markets and the Middle East.
WHY THIS IS HAPPENING
Fuel, not freight demand
Since March, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil — has driven marine fuel prices sharply higher and complicated where carriers buy fuel. Carriers layered emergency surcharges on top of their standard bunker adjustment mechanisms to recover the difference, alongside the war-risk charges that have been in place on affected routings.
Fuel eased early in the summer and some charges came down; it has since turned back up. Per U.S. EIA data for the week of August 17, national on-highway diesel posted its sharpest one-week jump of the summer, reaching its highest level since May. Tight global refining capacity is keeping diesel and bunker elevated even when crude dips.
READ YOUR INVOICE RIGHT
The pattern across carriers
There is no single industry move to point at — four different behaviors are running at once. Some of the carriers that eased over the summer have reinstated their charges. Some are holding steady, with explicit language reserving the right to adjust in either direction. At least one retired its emergency line item entirely but folded the underlying cost into its standard fuel recovery mechanism — the line disappeared, the cost didn’t. And several manage these lane by lane rather than network-wide, so two shippers on different trades can see opposite movements in the same month.
One qualifier worth keeping in mind: ocean and inland/intermodal emergency fuel charges are separate line items, and levels vary by lane, equipment type, and contract terms. Contact us for current levels on your specific lanes.
IN PRACTICE
What this means for your freight
- Budget for surcharges at or above current levels through at least September. The near-term direction of travel is up, not down — plan the quarter on that basis rather than on the early-summer easing.
- A removed EFS isn’t always a saving. When the cost moves into a standard fuel mechanism, the total can hold steady while the line item vanishes. Compare all-in cost rather than line items — the Surcharge Decoder covers how to compare properly.
- Check how your service contract treats emergency surcharges — pass-through or absorbed. That distinction decides who wears an increase, and it matters most before peak-season bookings, when peak season surcharges and GRIs land on top of fuel.
- Watch the inland side too.Diesel near multi-month highs keeps trucking and rail fuel charges elevated, so the door-to-door number can move even when the ocean leg doesn’t.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE IT
What would trigger reductions
Carriers have demonstrated they cut these charges when conditions allow — the easing in June and early July is the proof. Three signals to watch:
- Sustained normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- Marine bunker and diesel holding lower for several weeks, not days.
- Recovery in Middle East refinery output.
Treat EFS as a variable cost that is currently staying — not a permanent rate increase, but not going away this quarter either.
HOW WE WORK IT
Tracked carrier by carrier, booking by booking
We don’t manage this market from headlines. Surcharge changes are tracked carrier by carrier on every booking we handle — which charges came down and went back on, which moved into a standard fuel mechanism, and what each carrier’s current levels actually are on your lane. Quotes go out all-in, with every line itemized, so the number you book against ocean freight is the number you pay.
Based on published carrier customer advisories and U.S. EIA weekly on-highway diesel data through the week of August 17, 2026. Carrier surcharges change with limited notice.
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